As contest organizer, I emailed my own guesses to myself before I accepted anybody else's, so there was no tweaking of my entries. In hindsight, I wish I had made some nerdy guesses like e and sqrt(2). I was happy to see that Aaron guessed pi.
Aaron and Travis tied for the most digits of precision at 10. I can't help but wonder if there is a scale in the world that can resolve a billionth of a lb out of 4 lbs. There are certainly scales that can measure such tiny weights, but I think they would be crushed by a tomato!
Nobody guessed the same weight, so the odds of a split pot are minimal. The closest 2 guesses were me and Aaron, separated by 4 thousandths of a lb.
Now that the guesses are in, I will share my thinking. I've been growing a handful of tomato plants each year for the past 7-8 years. Maybe 40+ plants in that time? The biggest tomato I've ever seen was 1lb 9oz, and it was a monster. Granted, I didn't do anything special to increase the size of the tomato, and it wasn't from a variety with a history of producing monsters. Just sayin' that 1.5 lbs is a BIG tomato. I noticed that Dale from Utah, who some of us ordered seeds from, produced only one tomato over 2 lbs in 2013. Presumably, he grows in hot, dry conditions similar to ours, and he grows many plants with world class genetics. On the giant tomato forums, people celebrate their first 2-pounder. 2 lbs seems to be hard to achieve!
So given all that, I like the guesses in the high-1 to low-2 pound range. I have a feeling that the winner of this contest is going to be named either Fred, Mark, Aaron, or Paul. But of course, that's just my biased thinking. I hope I'm wrong and somebody brings in a scale-crushing football-sized tomato.
Here are the bets:
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